Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
